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2023 NFL schedule release: Win-loss predictions, analysis for every team
The NFL's 2023 schedule has been released. While a lot is bound to change from early May to the start of each game, our experts broke down every team's schedule, predicting game-by-game results and their final record based on what we know now.
Giants vs. Eagles on Christmas Day, 49ers vs. Eagles in week 13 announced ahead of NFL schedule release
The Cardinals have no Thursday night game or international game after playing in Mexico City against the 49ers last year. Arizona likely will start the season without the team’s best player in QB Kyler Murray as he rehabs from ACL knee surgery performed in January. This is a year of evaluation for GM Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon. —Eric D. Williams
The NFC South will be tightly packed again, and I have the Falcons missing the NFC South title by one game again. They have only one true road game in the first six weeks, but it’s tough competition. Flip a close loss — at Lions, at Titans, at Jets — and they’re right in the thick of it, with two easier opponents before they close on the road in New Orleans. —Greg Auman
With Lamar Jackson signed to a lucrative contract and the addition of receiver Odell Beckham Jr., the Ravens are poised to make some noise in 2023. However, Baltimore will be tested early, with three of the team’s first five games against AFC North foes, and all of them coming on the road. The Ravens have four prime time games this season and play in London — the second international game in franchise history. —Williams
The AFC East is going to be a brutal test for Buffalo. This is the toughest year for the Bills in the Josh Allen era. Not only is Aaron Rodgers in the division but the Bills have to deal with both of last year’s Super Bowl teams: the Eagles and Chiefs. It might look like an underestimate in the way of 12 wins, but this is a tough schedule. No, that’s not a typo: I think they drop a game to Brian Daboll’s Giants. He knows their system. —Henry McKenna
That opener in Atlanta is crucial — lose there, they could easily open 1-5 before their bye week, though they get easy fare coming out of the break. This could feel a lot like 2022, with a slow start and then a strong finish as Carolina finds itself. The finale in Charlotte against the Bucs could easily have the division title on the line, much like the Week 17 game this past year. —Auman
The Bears are about to start the season off with a bang, hosting their bitter rivals at Soldier Field for Packers quarterback Jordan Love’s first start. Chicago has four prime-time slots this season. The maximum a club can have is five. Depending on their record and how competitive the NFC North ends up being, the rematch of Week 1 in Week 18 could very well end up being that fifth slot. Chicago will also get all four AFC West teams in the first half of the season, leaving room for a late-season turnaround and four to five winnable games following their Week 13 bye. —Carmen Vitali
Surviving the AFC North could be tough enough for anyone, but the Bengals have plenty of other challenges. Back-to-back games off the bye week at San Francisco and vs. the Bills will test them. And they’ll find out just how ready they are for a run at the AFC Championship with a Week 17 date in Kansas City. They’ll need to build a cushion somewhere, because their December and January slate isn’t easy.  –Ralph Vacchiano
The Browns will ultimately go as far as Deshaun Watson takes them in 2023. His first season in Cleveland was rough, completing just 58.2% of his passes for 1,102 yards and seven touchdowns with five picks. It was understandable, considering he didn’t play in 2021. He must live up to his five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract for Cleveland to go anywhere in a loaded AFC, starting with a tough AFC North division. If he doesn’t step up, the Browns are a middling team. —Ben Arthur
I can’t remember ever seeing a late-season stretch that looks as brutal for the Cowboys as this one does. Running from Thanksgiving until the end of the season, Dallas is slated to play four 2022 playoff teams, a Lions squad that barely missed the postseason and two division rivalry games. Obviously, we can’t predict with certainty how any of these teams will look in 2023, but playing five Pro Bowl quarterbacks in the last seven weeks of the season doesn’t sound easy. I think this roster is good enough to weather the storm and return to the postseason, but it might be a slog to the finish line. —David Helman
Did Cowboys close the gap on Eagles this offseason?
I just do not believe in Russell Wilson’s ability to lead a winning team anymore. Sean Payton’s offense and Russell Wilson’s game style do not mesh. The Broncos offense is going to be hot and cold all season as Payton attempts to find the sweet spot for success in his system. While the Broncos have the skill position players to find yards and points, I’m not sure their offensive line is good enough to handle Wilson’s pocket presence. The Broncos defense should be good again, but is good enough to shut down all the high-powered offenses they are facing if the offense doesn’t do its part? I think not. —Geoff Schwartz
The Lions get to open the entire NFL season against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. And while some of their buzz has cooled after a questionable draft strategy, they have the opportunity to start the season (following the Chiefs game) hot out of the gates.
In fact, the Motor City is set to cruise for most of the season until hitting a bit of an unpredictable stretch at the back end of the season. They have a well-timed bye week smack in the middle of the season and make the maximum-allotted five primetime appearances, counting their traditional Thanksgiving matchup. This one will be interesting given it’s a Rodgerless Packers team coming to town. If the Lions live up to the hype this year, it’s easy to see how this division is theirs for the taking and a playoff berth is imminent. —Vitali
Jordan Love has spent the past three years learning from one of the best to ever do it, even if it was mostly by observation. But Love also has an established run game to lean on and a defense with eight first-round picks. Because teams won’t know what to immediately make of these Love-led Packers, they could get off to a hot start.
They won’t have it easy in Detroit on Thanksgiving. They’ll then have to turn around and play the defending champs, who are familiar with the harsh weather that could be present in Lambeau in November. That tough stretch isn’t over when they’ll have to travel to New Jersey to take on the New York Giants in primetime, either. That part of the season should temper expectations for the Packers but make no mistake, they’ll still be competing for a wild-card spot in the NFC. —Vitali
For the Texans, playing at Baltimore with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud and a first-year coach in DeMeco Ryans to kick off the season is daunting. The end of the season could be tough for Houston too, considering the Jets (Week 14) are in the preseason Super Bowl conversation, the Broncos (Week 13) and Browns (Week 16) may be much improved in 2023, and they face two matchups in three weeks with the division-rival Titans (Week 15, 17). But this is a team that could get six wins with an improved (and highly paid) offensive line in front of star running back Dameon Pierce, plus a better defense with a few potential long-term cornerstones (Jalen Pitre, Derek Stingley Jr., Will Anderson Jr.). —Arthur
The Colts have no prime-time games, to no one’s surprise. Even with Jonathan Taylor returning and a competitive defense, the tough sledding expected with No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson — who’s just 20 years old and started 13 games at Florida — keeps the win total low. A successful season for Indianapolis is Richardson showing he is a long-term franchise quarterback. —Arthur
The scheduling gods were kind to the Jaguars. Their toughest opponents on paper — Chiefs (Week 2), Bills (Week 5), 49ers (Week 10), Bengals (Week 13) and Ravens (Week 15) — are reasonably spread out. Their toughest primetime opponents (Bengals, Ravens) are at home. They get the Bills on a neutral in London, where their fanbase is strong. They also have the 49ers at home. This is a schedule favorable for Jacksonville’s chances of repeating as AFC South champions. —Arthur
The Chiefs are mostly predictable when it comes to wins and losses. They tend to start fast in September, get bored in October and then dominate after their bye week. Patrick Mahomes has 10 losses over 36 games in September and October, then just six losses in 44 games in the months of November, December and January. The Chiefs have not lost a divisional road game that Mahomes has started and that trend shouldn't end this season. The Chargers play their Super Bowl in Arrowhead and the Bengals get their playoff revenge in Arrowhead. I’ve penciled in the annual Chiefs clunker on the road in Minnesota to reach 13-4. —Schwartz
The Raiders are not a particularly talented football team, and their record this season will reflect that. Vegas moved on from Derek Carr, having replaced him with Jimmy Garoppolo, which is a downgrade in the quarterback room. There are also questions about Garoppolo’s ability to stay healthy for an entire season. He only played a majority of games in two of the five seasons he was the 49ers starter.Â
The Raiders offensive line is suspect and I worry about their ability to move the ball with that unit, even with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and new tight end Michael Mayer in the huddle. The Raiders pass rush should be good but the rest of the defense will not stop many offenses this season. —Schwartz
I’m probably a win too high on the Chargers because they are the Chargers and will undoubtably lose a game they should not. But there aren’t many certain tough opponents on the schedule outside of a visit to Tennessee and I can’t give them a loss in that game. The Chargers play their best games of the season in Kansas City so I’ve given them an upset win in Arrowhead to reflect that.Â
The Chargers have the talent to take the next step this season. The addition of Kellen Moore to call plays for a Justin Herbert-led offense should produce a more consistent unit. Lastly, the Chargers fired their head trainer after years of too many players on the weekly injury report. I do believe a change like this could help them make that jump in 2023. —Schwartz
The Rams play three of their first four games on the road while rolling out a young roster in 2023. Prime time games for Los Angeles include a Monday night game — a Super Bowl rematch on the road against the Bengals — and a Thursday night contest at home against Derek Carr and the Saints. While the Rams are in rebuild mode, they still have one of the best coaches in the business in a motivated Sean McVay looking to rebound from an embarrassing 2022 season. —Williams
It won’t be an easy start for the Dolphins. And I hope the Miami brass doesn’t do anything rash with Tua Tagovailoa during those weeks. Because if they can get through those weeks without getting buried, the Dolphins can stay in contention for the postseason. Once they make the playoffs, they are Super Bowl contenders. But just like the rest of the AFC East, there’s no sure thing they can actually get into the postseason. —McKenna
The NFC North is going to be much more competitive this year, despite the fact that the conference as a whole seems more wide-open.
Losing Adam Thielen to free agency is going to hurt the offensive side of the ball as well. Jordan Addison was a great pick in the first round but he’s undersized and may have a bit of a learning curve when it comes to transitioning to the NFL game. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said it himself: the Vikings are going into a ‘competitive rebuild,’ which is code for tempering expectations a bit. —Vitali
Just wait until Week 16 when two great coaches are jockeying for the playoffs (with mediocre teams) in their tough divisions: Bill Belichick vs. Sean Payton. Belichick faces a really tough slog to make the postseason. I don’t think he can pull it off. The best he can hope for is a good bid at getting to Don Shula’s all-time wins record in two years, rather than three. —McKenna
Patriots HC Bill Belichick reportedly shopped Mac Jones this offseason
If the Saints are going to win the South, they need to come out of their bye strong, which makes a Week 12 game in Atlanta pivotal. Four of the first six are on the road, so they might dig an early hole. I have them winning in Minnesota in Week 10, one of the better wins by any NFC South team. Whether they can avoid stumbles against lesser opponents will decide whether they’re in the hunt late. —Auman
Four primetime games in the first six, and five of their first seven games on the road? The schedule won't make it easy for the Giants to build on last year. They are home for five of their last seven, which will help them hang around the playoff race. But two of their last three are against the defending NFC champs.  –Vacchiano
The New York Jets may have all the pieces in place, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but it’s an absolutely brutal year for their division. Josh Allen is going to push them in Buffalo. Tyreek Hill and company are going to push the Jets when they travel to Miami. And of course, Bill Belichick has a way of beating New York. But Rodgers will keep them in legitimate contention in 2023. They will win the games they’re supposed to win, which is more than you can usually say for the Jets. —McKenna
What is on the line for Aaron Rodgers this season with Jets?
Want to know if the Eagles are primed for another run at the Super Bowl? Watch them during their four-game stretch after the bye-week. They have a Super Bowl rematch and an NFC championship game rematch plus games against the Cowboys and Bills. Then they have to go to Seattle after that? Good thing they can fatten up their record in the first half. They will be tested before their playoff run. —Vacchiano
The Steelers have a brutal three-game slate to end the season, facing the Bengals, Seahawks and Ravens. But Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing record since becoming the Steelers’ head coach in 2007, and I don’t expect that to happen now. Pittsburgh isn’t one of the elite teams in the AFC, but it should be in the mix for a playoff spot with Kenny Pickett in Year 2 and a T.J. Watt-led defense. —Arthur
The 49ers start the year with two games on the road but end the season with three of their last five games at Levi’s stadium, with only one of those teams making the playoffs last year in Seattle. San Francisco has five prime-time games, including contests on Thanksgiving and Christmas for the first time in franchise history. —Williams
Seattle travels further than any other team in the league at 31,600 miles. The Seahawks also play back-to-back Thursday night games, with three games in 12 days in the month of November. Seattle’s Thanksgiving Day game at Lumen Field is the first time the Seahawks will host a game at home on the holiday in team history. Offseason moves and the draft help Seattle close the gap on San Francisco. —Williams
The early bye week isn’t helpful, and the Bucs could easily be 1-3 entering the week off, but the middle of the season is lighter. The first-place schedule is harsh, handing them three likely losses against the Eagles, 49ers and Bills. It’s hard to see them 7-5 and trailing off like this, but that’s a tough stretch of five final games. To finish with as many wins as they did with Tom Brady would be a relative success. —Auman
Considering the state of the Titans’ offense and how their 2022 season ended (a seven-game losing streak), it’s surprising to see Mike Vrabel’s squad get two primetime games (TNF against the Steelers in Week 9, MNF against the Dolphins in Week 14). With both of them being on the road, that’s a tough draw for Tennessee.Â
An opposing strength of schedule that ranks 28th (based on 2022 record) is certainly a plus, though. A seven-game stretch early that includes Justin Herbert (Week 2), a potentially more comfortable Deshaun Watson in Year 2 with the Browns (Week 3), Joe Burrow (Week 4), Lamar Jackson (Week 6) and primetime in Pittsburgh (Week 9) could be too much for a team that might have difficulty scoring points. —Arthur
Sam Howell had better get the Commanders off to a fast start, because the second half of the season won’t be easy. Each of their last eight games come against legitimate playoff contenders. The problem, though, is he’ll face the Bills and Eagles in the first four games, and the Eagles twice in the first half. There won’t be many breaks for the first-year starter to get into a groove. —Vacchiano
This analysis was compiled by:
AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
Dallas Cowboys reporter David Helman (@davidhelman_)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFL and betting analyst Geoff Schwartz (@GeoffSchwartz)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
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